NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC)Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
The Footlab model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Fortuna Sittard. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
NEC Nijmegen starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (2,052 vs 1,880).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NEC Nijmegen have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Fortuna Sittard have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cambuur(home) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Apoel Nicosia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Metz(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 NEC Nijmegen win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Fortuna Sittard win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Fortuna Sittard 3-2 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Jan 19, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Fortuna Sittard 0-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Fortuna Sittard 1-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
NEC Nijmegen score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Fortuna Sittard score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NEC Nijmegen sit 11th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and Fortuna Sittard sit 8th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
- The Footlab model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Fortuna Sittard.
- Where and when is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard played?
- NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC) at Goffertstadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.