Italy vs France: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 12, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Stadio Olimpico, Roma
The Footlab model makes France the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Italy. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Italy vs France?
France starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,862 vs 1,730).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Italy have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; France have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Luxembourg(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(away) | 1-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Northern Ireland(home) | 2-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Norway(home) | 1-4 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | England(home) | 4-6 | World Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Norway(away) | 4-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Iraq(home) | 3-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Northern Ireland(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Italy win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 France win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | Italy 1-3 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 6, 2024 | France 1-3 Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 1, 2018 | France 3-1 Italy | Friendlies |
| Jun 17, 2008 | France 0-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Italy score 2.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; France score 2.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 2.1 | 1.4 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| France | 2.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Italy vs France?
- The Footlab model makes France the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Italy.
- Where and when is Italy vs France played?
- Italy vs France is played on November 12, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.