Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas: prediction and stats
Second LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Albena-1, Albena
The Footlab model makes Fratria the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Fratria (1,725) and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (1,702).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fratria have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Chernomorets 1919 Burgas have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Beroe(home) | 2-0 | Second League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa(away) | 2-0 | Second League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rilski Sportist(home) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Marek(home) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Yantra 2019(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Hebar 1918(away) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | CSKA Sofia II(home) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vihren(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Beroe(home) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Fratria win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0-2 Fratria | Second League |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Fratria 2-1 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | Second League |
Last archived meeting: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Fratria on Nov 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Fratria score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Chernomorets 1919 Burgas score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratria | 1.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fratria sit 4th in Second League (9 points from 4 matches) and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas sit 15th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fratria | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 15 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas?
- The Footlab model makes Fratria the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas.
- Where and when is Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas played?
- Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Albena-1, in the Second League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.