Where and when is Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist played?

Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Second League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist: prediction and stats

Second LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Nesebar

Nesebar

Rilski Sportist

The Footlab model makes Nesebar the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Rilski Sportist. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist?

Nesebar starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,698 vs 1,583).

Nesebar win58 %

Draw25 %

Rilski Sportist win18 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nesebar have 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Rilski Sportist have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Nesebar
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Pirin Blagoevgrad(home)	7-0	Second League
Aug 16, 2026	Sportist Svoge(away)	1-0	Second League
Aug 10, 2026	Dobrudzha(home)	2-0	Second League
Aug 4, 2026	Montana(away)	1-3	Second League
Jul 25, 2026	Etar Veliko Tarnovo(home)	1-5	Second League

Rilski Sportist
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Montana(home)	2-1	Second League
Aug 15, 2026	Etar Veliko Tarnovo(away)	1-1	Second League
Aug 9, 2026	Spartak Pleven(home)	2-2	Second League
Aug 1, 2026	Fratria(away)	0-1	Second League
Jul 28, 2026	Ludogorets II(home)	0-1	Second League

How many goals should we expect?

Nesebar score 3.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Rilski Sportist score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Nesebar	3.7	1.1	7	7/15	11/15
Rilski Sportist	1.0	1.2	2	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Nesebar sit 3rd in Second League (9 points from 5 matches) and Rilski Sportist sit 14th (5 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Nesebar	5	3	0	2	12	8	9
14	Rilski Sportist	5	1	2	2	5	6	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist?: The Footlab model makes Nesebar the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Rilski Sportist.
Where and when is Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist played?: Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Second League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.