FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Zemgales Olimpiskā centra, Jelgava
The Footlab model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for FS Jelgava. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja?
FK Liepaja starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (1,676 vs 1,558).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FS Jelgava have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; FK Liepaja have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ogre United(away) | 3-2 | Virsliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Auda(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tukums(away) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FS Jelgava win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 FK Liepaja win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | FS Jelgava 0-2 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| May 26, 2026 | FS Jelgava 1-1 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Apr 12, 2026 | FK Liepaja 1-1 FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| Feb 27, 2026 | FK Liepaja 2-1 FS Jelgava | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 25, 2025 | FK Liepaja 2-2 FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2025 | FS Jelgava 1-2 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja on Jul 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FS Jelgava score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; FK Liepaja score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FS Jelgava | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| FK Liepaja | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FS Jelgava sit 7th in Virsliga (28 points from 27 matches) and FK Liepaja sit 5th (37 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FK Liepaja | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 36 | 38 | 37 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 46 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja?
- The Footlab model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for FS Jelgava.
- Where and when is FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja played?
- FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja is played on October 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Zemgales Olimpiskā centra, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.