Grobiņa vs Ogre United: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Grobiņas stadionā, Grobiņa
The Footlab model makes Grobiņa the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Ogre United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grobiņa vs Ogre United?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Grobiņa (1,496) and Ogre United (1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grobiņa have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Ogre United have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FK Liepaja(away) | 1-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Auda(away) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 1-6 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Riga(away) | 0-4 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 1-3 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-4 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Grobiņa(away) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-4 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Grobiņa win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Ogre United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | Grobiņa 2-2 Ogre United | Virsliga |
| May 25, 2026 | Ogre United 1-1 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Ogre United 1-1 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: Grobiņa vs Ogre United on Jul 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Grobiņa score 0.8 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ogre United score 1.1 and concede 2.8. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grobiņa | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Ogre United | 1.1 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Grobiņa sit 8th in Virsliga (21 points from 27 matches) and Ogre United sit 10th (14 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grobiņa | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 50 | 21 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 68 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grobiņa vs Ogre United?
- The Footlab model makes Grobiņa the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Ogre United.
- Where and when is Grobiņa vs Ogre United played?
- Grobiņa vs Ogre United is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Grobiņas stadionā, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.