Match

FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils: prediction and stats

VirsligaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Zemgales Olimpiskā centra, Jelgava

FS JelgavaBFC Daugavpils

The Footlab AI model makes BFC Daugavpils the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for FS Jelgava. The most likely score is 1-1. If BFC Daugavpils wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,577 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils?

A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate FS Jelgava (1,568) and BFC Daugavpils (1,657).

33%30%37%
FS Jelgava winDrawBFC Daugavpils win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FS Jelgava

3-4-2-1
  1. 20G. Patika
  1. 11M. Hašek
  2. 24Filip Hašek
  3. 29G. Žaleiko
  4. 22M. Pudil
  5. 23Ādams Dreimanis
  6. 28A. Deklavs
  1. 27Kristers Neilands
  2. 4A. Kangars
  3. 19A. Pētersons
  1. 1A. Dvorak

BFC Daugavpils

4-2-3-1
  1. 97D. Kiwinda
  1. 10E. Ivanovs
  2. 11J. Yakubu
  3. 19E. Pinaskins
  4. 9A. Traore
  5. 4W. Mukwelle
  1. 8R. Skrebels
  2. 37Gļebs Mihaļcovs
  3. 5Papa
  4. 20Ceti Junior Taty Tchibinda
  1. 12J. Beks

Computed on October 17, 2026 at 11:47 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FS Jelgava have 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats; BFC Daugavpils have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FS Jelgava
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Rīgas FS(away)2-4Virsliga
Sep 19, 2026Riga(home)0-1Virsliga
Sep 12, 2026Grobiņa(away)0-0Virsliga
Sep 5, 2026Super Nova(home)0-1Virsliga
Aug 29, 2026Tukums(away)4-1Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Ogre United(away)2-1Virsliga
Sep 19, 2026FK Liepaja(away)0-0Virsliga
Sep 13, 2026Rīgas FS(home)1-2Virsliga
Sep 7, 2026Riga(away)1-1Virsliga
Sep 2, 2026Auda(home)2-2Cup

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FS Jelgava wins, 2 draws, 4 BFC Daugavpils wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 1, 2026BFC Daugavpils 2-1 FS JelgavaVirsliga
May 31, 2026FS Jelgava 1-1 BFC DaugavpilsVirsliga
Apr 16, 2026BFC Daugavpils 1-0 FS JelgavaVirsliga
Oct 18, 2025FS Jelgava 0-0 BFC DaugavpilsVirsliga
Jul 27, 2025BFC Daugavpils 2-0 FS JelgavaVirsliga
May 25, 2025BFC Daugavpils 1-0 FS JelgavaVirsliga

Last archived meeting: BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava on Aug 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FS Jelgava score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; BFC Daugavpils score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FS Jelgava1.41.526/157/15
BFC Daugavpils1.40.958/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FS Jelgava sit 7th in Virsliga (32 points from 32 matches) and BFC Daugavpils sit 5th (42 points from 32 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5BFC Daugavpils3211912373642
7FS Jelgava328816345332

A question about FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils?
The Footlab AI model makes BFC Daugavpils the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for FS Jelgava.
Where and when is FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils played?
FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils is played on October 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Zemgales Olimpiskā centra, in the Virsliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: FS Jelgava and BFC Daugavpils

Ready to know everything about football?