Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Matsumoto Yamaga: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Shoda Shoyu Stadium, Maebashi
The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Thespakusatsu Gunma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Thespakusatsu Gunma (1,663) and Matsumoto Yamaga (1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Thespakusatsu Gunma have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Matsumoto Yamaga have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 1-4 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tohoku Gakuin University(away) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sagamihara(home) | 1-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kagoshima United(away) | 0-1 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ehime FC(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kochi United(away) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ventforet Kofu(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nara Club(home) | 0-2 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Thespakusatsu Gunma win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 6-2 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-3 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J3 League |
| Oct 30, 2021 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga | J2 League |
| Apr 25, 2021 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J2 League |
| Dec 2, 2020 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga | J2 League |
| Jul 19, 2020 | Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Matsumoto Yamaga on Nov 23, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Thespakusatsu Gunma score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thespakusatsu Gunma | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Thespakusatsu Gunma sit 20th in J3 League (0 points from 3 matches) and Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 20 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
- The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Thespakusatsu Gunma.
- Where and when is Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Matsumoto Yamaga played?
- Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Matsumoto Yamaga is played on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Shoda Shoyu Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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