Fulham vs Chelsea: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 24, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Craven Cottage, London
The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Fulham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fulham vs Chelsea?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Fulham (2,119) and Chelsea (2,155).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fulham have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Chelsea have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Farense(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Johor Darul Takzim FC(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Fulham win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Chelsea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | Fulham 2-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Chelsea 2-0 Fulham | Premier League |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Fulham 1-2 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Chelsea 1-2 Fulham | Premier League |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Chelsea 1-0 Fulham | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2023 | Fulham 0-2 Chelsea | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Fulham score 0.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Chelsea score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Chelsea | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fulham sit 11th in Premier League (52 points from 38 matches) and Chelsea sit 10th (52 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58 | 52 | 52 |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47 | 51 | 52 |
Who is out?
4 reported absence(s) for this match.
- J. AndersenFulhamOut(Red Card)
- T. CairneyFulhamOut(Knee Injury)
- J. HendersonChelseaOut(Wrist Injury)
- W. FofanaChelseaOut(Red Card)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fulham vs Chelsea?
- The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Fulham.
- Where and when is Fulham vs Chelsea played?
- Fulham vs Chelsea is played on August 24, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Craven Cottage, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.