Gainare Tottori vs Matsumoto Yamaga: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 17, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Axis Bird Stadium, Tottori
The Footlab model makes Gainare Tottori the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Matsumoto Yamaga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gainare Tottori vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Gainare Tottori (1,694) and Matsumoto Yamaga (1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gainare Tottori have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Matsumoto Yamaga have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fukushima United(home) | 2-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 2-2 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ehime FC(away) | 0-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 1-1 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ehime FC(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kochi United(away) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ventforet Kofu(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nara Club(home) | 0-2 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gainare Tottori win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2025 | Gainare Tottori 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| May 18, 2025 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Gainare Tottori | J3 League |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Matsumoto Yamaga 3-4 Gainare Tottori | J3 League |
| Jun 8, 2024 | Gainare Tottori 0-4 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Gainare Tottori 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Apr 2, 2023 | Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 Gainare Tottori | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Gainare Tottori vs Matsumoto Yamaga on Aug 23, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Gainare Tottori score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainare Tottori | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gainare Tottori sit 10th in J3 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gainare Tottori | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gainare Tottori vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
- The Footlab model makes Gainare Tottori the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Matsumoto Yamaga.
- Where and when is Gainare Tottori vs Matsumoto Yamaga played?
- Gainare Tottori vs Matsumoto Yamaga is played on March 17, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Axis Bird Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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