Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sunpro Alwin Stadium, Matsumoto
The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Gainare Tottori. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Matsumoto Yamaga (1,701) and Gainare Tottori (1,694).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Matsumoto Yamaga have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Gainare Tottori have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ehime FC(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kochi United(away) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ventforet Kofu(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nara Club(home) | 0-2 | J2/J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fukushima United(home) | 2-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 2-2 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ehime FC(away) | 0-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 1-1 | J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Gainare Tottori win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2025 | Gainare Tottori 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| May 18, 2025 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Gainare Tottori | J3 League |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Matsumoto Yamaga 3-4 Gainare Tottori | J3 League |
| Jun 8, 2024 | Gainare Tottori 0-4 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Gainare Tottori 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Apr 2, 2023 | Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 Gainare Tottori | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Gainare Tottori vs Matsumoto Yamaga on Aug 23, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Gainare Tottori score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Gainare Tottori | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th in J3 League (2 points from 3 matches) and Gainare Tottori sit 10th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gainare Tottori | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori?
- The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Gainare Tottori.
- Where and when is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori played?
- Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori is played on October 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sunpro Alwin Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.