Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Renofa Yamaguchi: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 17, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Shoda Shoyu Stadium, Maebashi
The Footlab model makes Renofa Yamaguchi the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Thespakusatsu Gunma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Thespakusatsu Gunma (1,663) and Renofa Yamaguchi (1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Thespakusatsu Gunma have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Renofa Yamaguchi have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 1-4 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tohoku Gakuin University(away) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sagamihara(home) | 1-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kagoshima United(away) | 0-1 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nara Club(away) | 1-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Kagoshima United(away) | 1-2 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Ryukyu(home) | 1-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(away) | 0-1 | J3 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Yokohama FC(away) | 1-2 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Thespakusatsu Gunma win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Renofa Yamaguchi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 2024 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 0-1 Renofa Yamaguchi | J2 League |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-1 Renofa Yamaguchi | Emperor Cup |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Renofa Yamaguchi 4-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J2 League |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Renofa Yamaguchi 1-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J2 League |
| May 7, 2023 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 2-1 Renofa Yamaguchi | J2 League |
| Sep 24, 2022 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-6 Renofa Yamaguchi | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Renofa Yamaguchi on Jun 16, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Thespakusatsu Gunma score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Renofa Yamaguchi score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thespakusatsu Gunma | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Renofa Yamaguchi | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Thespakusatsu Gunma sit 20th in J3 League (0 points from 3 matches) and Renofa Yamaguchi sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 20 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
- The Footlab model makes Renofa Yamaguchi the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Thespakusatsu Gunma.
- Where and when is Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Renofa Yamaguchi played?
- Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Renofa Yamaguchi is played on March 17, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Shoda Shoyu Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.