Galapagar vs Móstoles: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Group 7 - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Galapagar, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Móstoles the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Galapagar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Móstoles wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,623 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Galapagar vs Móstoles?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Galapagar (1,752) and Móstoles (1,793).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Galapagar vs Móstoles
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Galapagar
Not enough data to predict the Galapagar lineup.
Móstoles
Not enough data to predict the Móstoles lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 10:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Galapagar have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Móstoles have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Leganés II(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cala Pozuelo(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano II(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Las Rozas(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Aranjuez(away) | 5-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Unión Adarve(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Leganés II(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Torrejón(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cala Pozuelo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fuenlabrada(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Galapagar wins, 3 draws, 3 Móstoles wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Galapagar 1-1 Móstoles | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Móstoles 1-0 Galapagar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| May 1, 2024 | Galapagar 3-3 Móstoles | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | Móstoles 0-0 Galapagar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Jan 22, 2023 | Móstoles 2-0 Galapagar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Galapagar 0-1 Móstoles | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
Last archived meeting: Galapagar vs Móstoles on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Galapagar score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Móstoles score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galapagar | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Móstoles | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Galapagar sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 (11 points from 6 matches) and Móstoles sit 6th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Galapagar | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| 6 | Móstoles | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
A question about Galapagar vs Móstoles?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Galapagar vs Móstoles?
- The Footlab AI model makes Móstoles the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Galapagar.
- Where and when is Galapagar vs Móstoles played?
- Galapagar vs Móstoles is played on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Galapagar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2027Las RozasvsColonia Moscardó
- Feb 28, 2027Leganés IIvsRC Alcobendas
- Feb 28, 2027Pozuelo AlarcónvsFuenlabrada
- Feb 28, 2027Rayo Vallecano IIvsSS Reyes II
- Feb 28, 2027Real AranjuezvsAlcobendas Sport
- Feb 28, 2027Villanueva PardillovsUnión Adarve
- Feb 28, 2027Cala PozuelovsTrival Valderas
- Feb 28, 2027Parla EscuelavsTorrejón