Geita Gold vs Mashujaa: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Nyankumbu Stadium, Geita
The Footlab model makes Geita Gold the favourite at 50%, against 30% for a draw and 20% for Mashujaa. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Geita Gold vs Mashujaa?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Geita Gold (1,473) and Mashujaa (1,525).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Geita Gold have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Mashujaa have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(home) | 6-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 28, 2024 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 25, 2024 | Fountain Gate(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fountain Gate(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Coastal Union(away) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Tanzania Prisons(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | KMC(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Geita Gold win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Mashujaa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | Geita Gold 1-3 Mashujaa | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 21, 2023 | Mashujaa 0-0 Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Geita Gold vs Mashujaa on Feb 25, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Geita Gold score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Mashujaa score 0.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geita Gold | 0.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Mashujaa | 0.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Geita Gold sit 4th in Ligi kuu Bara (6 points from 3 matches) and Mashujaa sit 9th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Geita Gold | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Mashujaa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Geita Gold vs Mashujaa?
- The Footlab model makes Geita Gold the favourite at 50%, against 30% for a draw and 20% for Mashujaa.
- Where and when is Geita Gold vs Mashujaa played?
- Geita Gold vs Mashujaa is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Nyankumbu Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.