Namungo vs Mbeya City: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 20, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Majaliwa Stadium, Ruangwa
The Footlab model makes Namungo the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Mbeya City. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Namungo vs Mbeya City?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Namungo (1,538) and Mbeya City (1,506).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Namungo have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Mbeya City have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Geita Gold(home) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Young Africans(home) | 1-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Mtibwa Sugar(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Fountain Gate(home) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 24, 2026 | KMC(away) | 3-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Geita Gold(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Namungo win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Mbeya City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Namungo 1-1 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Mbeya City 0-1 Namungo | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 9, 2023 | Namungo 2-1 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 4, 2022 | Mbeya City 2-1 Namungo | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 29, 2022 | Mbeya City 1-1 Namungo | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 21, 2022 | Namungo 2-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Namungo vs Mbeya City on May 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Namungo score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Mbeya City score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Namungo | 0.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Mbeya City | 0.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Namungo sit 8th in Ligi kuu Bara (3 points from 2 matches) and Mbeya City sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mbeya City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Namungo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Namungo vs Mbeya City?
- The Footlab model makes Namungo the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Mbeya City.
- Where and when is Namungo vs Mbeya City played?
- Namungo vs Mbeya City is played on November 20, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Majaliwa Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.