Monza vs Atalanta: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)U-Power Stadium, Monza
The Footlab AI model makes Atalanta the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Monza. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atalanta wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monza vs Atalanta?
Atalanta starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (2,118 vs 1,954).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Monza vs Atalanta
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Monza
3-4-2-1- 9Gustavo Varela
- 7Ricardo Mangas
- 19S. Birindelli
- 14E. Akinsanmiro
- 90M. Folorunsho
- 16C. Ngonge
- 22E. Zeballos
- 3L. Lucchesi
- 60E. Kouadio
- 44A. Carboni
- 1N. Törnqvist
Atalanta
4-3-3- 17C. De Ketelaere
- 11J. Rowe
- 90N. Krstović
- 13Éderson
- 19F. Kessié
- 10L. Samardžić
- 42G. Scalvini
- 16R. Bellanova
- 31T. Kristensen
- 77D. Zappacosta
- 29M. Carnesecchi
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 09:58 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monza have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Atalanta have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sassuolo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lecce(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Venezia(home) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cagliari(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Monza wins, 0 draws, 6 Atalanta wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2025 | Monza 0-4 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Atalanta 2-0 Monza | Serie A |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Monza 1-2 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Atalanta 3-0 Monza | Serie A |
| Jun 4, 2023 | Atalanta 5-2 Monza | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2022 | Monza 0-2 Atalanta | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Monza score 1.8 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Atalanta score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 1.8 | 1.9 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Atalanta | 1.2 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monza sit 16th in Serie A (4 points from 6 matches) and Atalanta sit 10th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 4 |
A question about Monza vs Atalanta?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monza vs Atalanta?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atalanta the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Monza.
- Where and when is Monza vs Atalanta played?
- Monza vs Atalanta is played on November 8, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at U-Power Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.