Where and when is Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue played?

Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue is played on October 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Volksstadion Greifswald, in the Regionalliga - Nordost.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue: prediction and stats

Regionalliga - NordostNordost - 12Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Volksstadion Greifswald, Greifswald

Greifswalder FC

Erzgebirge Aue

The Footlab model makes Greifswalder FC the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Erzgebirge Aue. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?

A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Greifswalder FC (1,907) and Erzgebirge Aue (1,840).

Greifswalder FC win49 %

Draw24 %

Erzgebirge Aue win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Greifswalder FC have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Erzgebirge Aue have 8, 4 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Greifswalder FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	BFC Preussen(away)	1-1	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 7, 2026	Altglienicke(home)	1-3	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 4, 2026	Hertha BSC II(away)	4-1	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 1, 2026	FSV Zwickau(away)	3-0	Regionalliga - Nordost
Jul 26, 2026	Hallescher FC(home)	2-2	Regionalliga - Nordost

Erzgebirge Aue
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	1899 Hoffenheim(home)	0-4	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Chemnitzer FC(away)	1-3	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 9, 2026	BFC Preussen(home)	2-1	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 6, 2026	BFC Dynamo(home)	3-2	Regionalliga - Nordost
Jul 31, 2026	Tasmania Berlin(away)	2-0	Regionalliga - Nordost

How many goals should we expect?

Greifswalder FC score 2.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Erzgebirge Aue score 2.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Greifswalder FC	2.7	1.3	4	10/15	10/15
Erzgebirge Aue	2.5	1.8	4	10/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Greifswalder FC sit 8th in Regionalliga - Nordost (8 points from 5 matches) and Erzgebirge Aue sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Erzgebirge Aue	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
8	Greifswalder FC	5	2	2	1	11	7	8

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?: The Footlab model makes Greifswalder FC the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Erzgebirge Aue.
Where and when is Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue played?: Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue is played on October 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Volksstadion Greifswald, in the Regionalliga - Nordost.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.