Rochdale vs Grimsby: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Crown Oil Arena, Rochdale, Greater Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Rochdale the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Grimsby. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rochdale wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rochdale vs Grimsby?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Rochdale (1,937) and Grimsby (1,883).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rochdale vs Grimsby
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rochdale
4-2-3-1- 39D. Brown
- 17B. Adeeko
- 8H. Gilmour
- 14E. Francis
- 21Kane Taylor
- 45G. Middleton
- 3Kaiden Wilson
- 2C. Tasker
- 44A. Flint
- 26S. Sherring
- 1Nils Ramming
Grimsby
4-1-4-1- 9Iwan Morgan
- 4K. Green
- 30C. Vernam
- 8Cian Doyle
- 7J. Walker
- 28F. Cartwright
- 3J. Sweeney
- 5H. Rodgers
- 17C. McJannet
- 2M. Kacurri
- 31C. Pym
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:33 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rochdale have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Grimsby have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 0-5 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Liverpool U21(home) | 3-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Burton Albion(home) | 0-0 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Shrewsbury(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Notts County(away) | 1-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Rochdale wins, 0 draws, 2 Grimsby wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2025 | Rochdale 2-0 Grimsby | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Grimsby 1-0 Rochdale | League Two |
| Aug 13, 2022 | Rochdale 0-1 Grimsby | League Two |
| Aug 14, 2018 | Grimsby 0-2 Rochdale | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Rochdale score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Grimsby score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 1.3 | 1.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Grimsby | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rochdale sit 11th in League Two (13 points from 9 matches) and Grimsby sit 9th (13 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grimsby | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| 11 | Rochdale | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 13 |
A question about Rochdale vs Grimsby?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rochdale vs Grimsby?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rochdale the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Grimsby.
- Where and when is Rochdale vs Grimsby played?
- Rochdale vs Grimsby is played on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Crown Oil Arena, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.