Groene Ster vs Dongen: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark Pronsenbroek, Heerlen
The Footlab AI model makes Dongen the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Groene Ster. The most likely score is 1-1. If Dongen wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,588 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groene Ster vs Dongen?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Groene Ster (1,591) and Dongen (1,623).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Groene Ster vs Dongen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Groene Ster
4-3-3- 9Bjorn Stassen
- 21L. Golsteijn
- 11S. Ahidar
- 27M. Germonprez
- 18T. Hajjaji
- 8B. Simons
- 17D. Stassar
- 23D. Zwartjes
- 2J. de Kleijn
- 10C. Ghijsen
- 1M. Voss
Dongen
4-3-3- 17M. van Bree
- 15A. Sesay
- 11R. Siemerink
- 10F. Kamaçi
- 8T. Avontuur
- 4T. Martens
- 6L. Hultermans
- 14S. Spijkers
- 12J. Gerrits
- 20P. Scheerlinck
- 22S. Heijstee
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 08:52 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groene Ster have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Dongen have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | GOES(home) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Rijnvogels(away) | 1-5 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gemert(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 22, 2026 | AFC Amsterdam(home) | 1-6 | KNVB Beker |
| Sep 19, 2026 | EVV(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | UDI '19(away) | 0-4 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Poortugaal(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 27, 2026 | UNA(away) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Blauw Geel(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GOES(home) | 2-3 | Derde Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Groene Ster win, 3 draws, 1 Dongen win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2023 | Dongen 1-2 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Nov 27, 2022 | Groene Ster 0-0 Dongen | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Mar 20, 2022 | Dongen 2-1 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Feb 13, 2022 | Groene Ster 2-2 Dongen | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Oct 6, 2019 | Groene Ster 1-1 Dongen | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
Last archived meeting: Dongen vs Groene Ster on May 21, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Groene Ster score 1.5 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; Dongen score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groene Ster | 1.5 | 2.6 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
| Dongen | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Groene Ster sit 13th in Derde Divisie (9 points from 9 matches) and Dongen sit 8th (13 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Dongen | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 13 |
| 13 | Groene Ster | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 9 |
A question about Groene Ster vs Dongen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groene Ster vs Dongen?
- The Footlab AI model makes Dongen the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Groene Ster.
- Where and when is Groene Ster vs Dongen played?
- Groene Ster vs Dongen is played on March 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Pronsenbroek, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.