Groene Ster vs Excelsior Maassluis: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Pronsenbroek, Heerlen
The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior Maassluis the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Groene Ster. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,902 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groene Ster vs Excelsior Maassluis?
Excelsior Maassluis starts as the favourite with a 291-point Elo edge (1,884 vs 1,593).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Groene Ster vs Excelsior Maassluis
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Groene Ster
4-3-3- 9Bjorn Stassen
- 21L. Golsteijn
- 11S. Ahidar
- 27M. Germonprez
- 18T. Hajjaji
- 8B. Simons
- 17D. Stassar
- 23D. Zwartjes
- 2J. de Kleijn
- 10C. Ghijsen
- 1M. Voss
Excelsior Maassluis
4-3-3- 27D. Plank
- 17D. Slagveer
- 9B. Wennekers
- 30Y. Hamd
- 8J. Udenhout
- 21N. Nagtegaal
- 24D. Lopes Varela
- 12B. Riley
- 4D. Heuvelman
- 29S. Smits
- 16K. El Fakiri
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 04:13 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groene Ster have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Excelsior Maassluis have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Dongen(away) | 0-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 11, 2026 | GOES(home) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Rijnvogels(away) | 1-5 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gemert(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 22, 2026 | AFC Amsterdam(home) | 1-6 | KNVB Beker |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Zwaluwen(away) | 2-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 10, 2026 | TOGB(home) | 3-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Vvsb(away) | 3-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Blauw Geel(home) | 1-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sportlust '46(away) | 2-0 | KNVB Beker |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Groene Ster wins, 0 draws, 1 Excelsior Maassluis win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis 3-1 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior Maassluis vs Groene Ster on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Groene Ster score 1.5 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior Maassluis score 2.0 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groene Ster | 1.5 | 2.6 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
| Excelsior Maassluis | 2.0 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Groene Ster sit 14th in Derde Divisie (9 points from 10 matches) and Excelsior Maassluis sit 3rd (23 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Excelsior Maassluis | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 7 | 23 |
| 14 | Groene Ster | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 9 |
A question about Groene Ster vs Excelsior Maassluis?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groene Ster vs Excelsior Maassluis?
- The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior Maassluis the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Groene Ster.
- Where and when is Groene Ster vs Excelsior Maassluis played?
- Groene Ster vs Excelsior Maassluis is played on January 16, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Pronsenbroek, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.