Groene Ster vs Heerjansdam: prediction and stats
KNVB Beker1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Pronsenbroek, Heerlen
The Footlab model makes Heerjansdam the favourite at 43%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Groene Ster. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groene Ster vs Heerjansdam?
Heerjansdam starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (1,729 vs 1,587).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groene Ster have 4 wins, 0 draws and 11 defeats; Heerjansdam have 2, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Roosendaal(home) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | ASWH(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | TOGB(away) | 1-5 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 9, 2026 | Kloetinge(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Dongen(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Dongen(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| May 30, 2026 | Valkenswaard(home) | 5-2 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| May 27, 2026 | Valkenswaard(away) | 3-3 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Barendrecht(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Groene Ster score 1.2 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; Heerjansdam score 2.2 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groene Ster | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
| Heerjansdam | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0 | 6/6 | 5/6 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groene Ster vs Heerjansdam?
- The Footlab model makes Heerjansdam the favourite at 43%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Groene Ster.
- Where and when is Groene Ster vs Heerjansdam played?
- Groene Ster vs Heerjansdam is played on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Pronsenbroek, in the KNVB Beker.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.