Hercules vs EVV: prediction and stats
KNVB Beker1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Voordorp (USV Hercules), Utrecht
The Footlab model makes Hercules the favourite at 57%, against 20% for a draw and 23% for EVV. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hercules vs EVV?
Hercules starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,746 vs 1,601).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hercules have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; EVV have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SC Genemuiden(home) | 0-4 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | ADO '20(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rijnsburgse Boys(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | TEC(away) | 0-0 | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Harkemase Boys(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dongen(home) | 2-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | GOES(away) | 2-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 3-10 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | MVV(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | SteDoCo(home) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Hercules win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 EVV win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2022 | EVV 2-3 Hercules | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Oct 17, 2021 | Hercules 3-0 EVV | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Sep 13, 2020 | EVV 0-5 Hercules | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Oct 6, 2019 | Hercules 1-3 EVV | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
How many goals should we expect?
Hercules score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; EVV score 1.4 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| EVV | 1.4 | 2.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hercules vs EVV?
- The Footlab model makes Hercules the favourite at 57%, against 20% for a draw and 23% for EVV.
- Where and when is Hercules vs EVV played?
- Hercules vs EVV is played on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Voordorp (USV Hercules), in the KNVB Beker.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.