Groene Ster vs TOGB: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark Pronsenbroek, Heerlen
The Footlab AI model makes TOGB the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Groene Ster. The most likely score is 1-1. If TOGB wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,449 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groene Ster vs TOGB?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Groene Ster (1,598) and TOGB (1,693).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Groene Ster vs TOGB
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Groene Ster
4-3-3- 9Bjorn Stassen
- 21L. Golsteijn
- 11S. Ahidar
- 27M. Germonprez
- 18T. Hajjaji
- 8B. Simons
- 17D. Stassar
- 23D. Zwartjes
- 2J. de Kleijn
- 10C. Ghijsen
- 1M. Voss
TOGB
4-3-3- 7M. Le Fevre
- 9A. Bensalah
- 19M. El Yakoubi
- 21T. Azaroiali
- 6J. Zandbergen
- 8L. Zwarteveld
- 3G. Zandbergen
- 5M. van der Elst
- 13F. Eijgenraam
- 15J. Weegman
- 1M. Zwartveld
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 08:20 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groene Ster have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; TOGB have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | GOES(home) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Rijnvogels(away) | 1-5 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gemert(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 22, 2026 | AFC Amsterdam(home) | 1-6 | KNVB Beker |
| Sep 19, 2026 | EVV(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis(away) | 2-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Roosendaal(home) | 4-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Achilles Veen(away) | 1-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 23, 2026 | ROHDA Raalte(home) | 4-6 | KNVB Beker |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Noordwijk(home) | 0-3 | Derde Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Groene Ster wins, 2 draws, 4 TOGB wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | TOGB 3-3 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | TOGB 5-1 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Groene Ster 0-1 TOGB | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Feb 25, 2024 | TOGB 2-0 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Groene Ster 1-2 TOGB | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Jan 29, 2023 | TOGB 1-1 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
How many goals should we expect?
Groene Ster score 1.5 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; TOGB score 2.0 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groene Ster | 1.5 | 2.6 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
| TOGB | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Groene Ster sit 13th in Derde Divisie (9 points from 9 matches) and TOGB sit 15th (8 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Groene Ster | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 9 |
| 15 | TOGB | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 21 | 8 |
A question about Groene Ster vs TOGB?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groene Ster vs TOGB?
- The Footlab AI model makes TOGB the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Groene Ster.
- Where and when is Groene Ster vs TOGB played?
- Groene Ster vs TOGB is played on January 31, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Pronsenbroek, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.