Guimaraes B vs AD Marco 09: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 14Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Gémeos Castro, Guimarães
The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes B the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for AD Marco 09. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guimaraes B wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 4,854 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guimaraes B vs AD Marco 09?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Guimaraes B (1,972) and AD Marco 09 (1,949).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guimaraes B vs AD Marco 09
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guimaraes B
4-3-3- 90Rodrigo Macedo
- 32M. Tepe
- 87G. Paula
- 80R. Rocha
- 50Zeega
- 56S. Verdi
- 93Rika
- 76Rafael Alcobia
- 72T. Rodrigues
- 96Rodrigo Silva
- 99Guilherme
AD Marco 09
4-3-3- 8Erivaldo
- 9Ka
- 10L. Garro
- 18F. Fernandes
- 29Lucas Henrique
- 17J. Gata
- 4Chicão
- 77R. Barrett
- 82J. Guerrero
- 2Victor Thiago
- 26Ze Couto
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 11:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guimaraes B have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; AD Marco 09 have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | São João Ver(away) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Varzim(away) | 4-2 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | AD Marco 09(away) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Paredes(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Fafe(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Farense(away) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leça(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Guimaraes B wins, 2 draws, 2 AD Marco 09 wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | AD Marco 09 1-0 Guimaraes B | Liga 3 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Guimaraes B 1-0 AD Marco 09 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 10, 2025 | AD Marco 09 0-0 Guimaraes B | Liga 3 |
| May 25, 2025 | AD Marco 09 1-1 Guimaraes B | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 4, 2025 | Guimaraes B 3-2 AD Marco 09 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Mar 17, 2024 | AD Marco 09 3-0 Guimaraes B | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: AD Marco 09 vs Guimaraes B on Sep 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guimaraes B score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; AD Marco 09 score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes B | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| AD Marco 09 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guimaraes B sit 5th in Liga 3 (12 points from 9 matches) and AD Marco 09 sit 3rd (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Guimaraes B | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
A question about Guimaraes B vs AD Marco 09?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guimaraes B vs AD Marco 09?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes B the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for AD Marco 09.
- Where and when is Guimaraes B vs AD Marco 09 played?
- Guimaraes B vs AD Marco 09 is played on January 3, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Gémeos Castro, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.