AD Marco 09 vs Leça: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 15Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal do Marco de Canaveses, Marco de Canaveses
The Footlab AI model makes Leça the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for AD Marco 09. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leça wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,403 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Marco 09 vs Leça?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate AD Marco 09 (1,981) and Leça (2,061).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AD Marco 09 vs Leça
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AD Marco 09
4-3-3- 8Erivaldo
- 9Ka
- 10L. Garro
- 23João Guilherme
- 20B. Traoré
- 18F. Fernandes
- 4Chicão
- 77R. Barrett
- 82J. Guerrero
- 2Victor Thiago
- 64T. Martins
Leça
4-3-3- 10Nicolas
- 11B. Mesquita
- 9M. Fortes
- 20Rodrigo Ferreira
- 33Diogo Pereira
- 21Carlos Avelino
- 23D. Ribeiro
- 41Cássio Scheid
- 22A. Coutinho
- 4Fábio Baldé
- 1M. Paiva
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 11:48 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AD Marco 09 have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Leça have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leça(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Maia Lidador(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Guimaraes B(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | São João Ver(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Régua(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 4-1 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fafe(home) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 AD Marco 09 win, 2 draws, 3 Leça wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leça 2-0 AD Marco 09 | Liga 3 |
| May 18, 2025 | AD Marco 09 3-2 Leça | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Leça 1-0 AD Marco 09 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Feb 9, 2025 | AD Marco 09 0-1 Leça | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Leça 0-0 AD Marco 09 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Leça 2-2 AD Marco 09 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
AD Marco 09 score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Leça score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Marco 09 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Leça | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AD Marco 09 sit 3rd in Liga 3 (10 points from 6 matches) and Leça sit 2nd (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
A question about AD Marco 09 vs Leça?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Marco 09 vs Leça?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leça the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for AD Marco 09.
- Where and when is AD Marco 09 vs Leça played?
- AD Marco 09 vs Leça is played on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal do Marco de Canaveses, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.