Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 2Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional 24 de Setembro, Bissau
The Footlab model makes Nigeria the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Guinea-Bissau. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria?
Nigeria is a heavy favourite: 1,718 Elo points against 1,408 — a 310-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guinea-Bissau have 1 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats; Nigeria have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Burkina Faso(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Burkina Faso(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Egypt(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Ethiopia(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Djibouti(home) | 2-0 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Portugal(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Poland(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| May 30, 2026 | Jamaica(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| May 26, 2026 | Zimbabwe(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Jordan(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Guinea-Bissau win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Nigeria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2024 | Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Mar 27, 2023 | Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 24, 2023 | Nigeria 0-1 Guinea-Bissau | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jan 19, 2022 | Guinea-Bissau 0-2 Nigeria | Africa Cup of Nations |
Last archived meeting: Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria on Jan 22, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Guinea-Bissau score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Nigeria score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guinea-Bissau | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Nigeria | 1.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guinea-Bissau sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (5 points from 6 matches) and Nigeria sit 1st (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nigeria | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Guinea-Bissau | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria?
- The Footlab model makes Nigeria the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Guinea-Bissau.
- Where and when is Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria played?
- Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional 24 de Setembro, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.