Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional 24 de Setembro, Bissau
The Footlab model makes Madagascar the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Guinea-Bissau. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Guinea-Bissau (1,408) and Madagascar (1,507).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guinea-Bissau have 1 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats; Madagascar have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Burkina Faso(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Burkina Faso(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Egypt(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Ethiopia(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Djibouti(home) | 2-0 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | Morocco(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Equatorial Guinea(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Kyrgyzstan(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Equatorial Guinea(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Mali(away) | 1-4 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Guinea-Bissau score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Madagascar score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guinea-Bissau | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Madagascar | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guinea-Bissau sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (5 points from 6 matches) and Madagascar sit 4th (2 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Guinea-Bissau | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 4 | Madagascar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar?
- The Footlab model makes Madagascar the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Guinea-Bissau.
- Where and when is Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar played?
- Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional 24 de Setembro, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.