Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City: prediction and stats
K3 LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC)Gyeongju Citizen Stadium, Gyeongju
The Footlab model makes Gyeongju HNP the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Changwon City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Gyeongju HNP (1,665) and Changwon City (1,663).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gyeongju HNP have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Changwon City have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Yangpyeong(away) | 3-3 | K3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Siheung Citizen(home) | 1-0 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Cheongju(away) | 0-4 | FA Cup |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Daejeon Korail(away) | 1-0 | K3 League |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Seosan Pioneer(home) | 3-0 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Busan Transportation(away) | 3-4 | K3 League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors II(home) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Gimhae City(home) | 1-5 | FA Cup |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Chuncheon(home) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Geumsan Insam(home) | 3-0 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gyeongju HNP win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Changwon City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Changwon City 3-2 Gyeongju HNP | K3 League |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Gyeongju HNP 0-0 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Changwon City 0-0 Gyeongju HNP | K3 League |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Gyeongju HNP 0-0 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Jun 2, 2024 | Changwon City 0-1 Gyeongju HNP | K3 League |
| Jul 8, 2023 | Gyeongju HNP 3-0 Changwon City | K3 League |
Last archived meeting: Changwon City vs Gyeongju HNP on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gyeongju HNP score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Changwon City score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyeongju HNP | 1.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Changwon City | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gyeongju HNP sit 8th in K3 League (23 points from 19 matches) and Changwon City sit 6th (26 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Changwon City | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Changwon City | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 26 |
| 8 | Gyeongju HNP | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 27 | 23 |
| 10 | Gyeongju HNP | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City?
- The Footlab model makes Gyeongju HNP the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Changwon City.
- Where and when is Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City played?
- Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City is played on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at Gyeongju Citizen Stadium, in the K3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.