Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation: prediction and stats
K3 LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ulsan Complex Stadium, Ulsan
The Footlab model makes Busan Transportation the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Ulsan Citizen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation?
Busan Transportation starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (1,731 vs 1,560).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ulsan Citizen have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Busan Transportation have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors II(away) | 1-0 | K3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Gwangju FC(home) | 0-1 | FA Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Ulsan Hyundai FC(home) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Chuncheon(away) | 1-2 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Seoul E-Land FC(home) | 4-2 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Changwon City(home) | 4-3 | K3 League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Jinju Citizen(home) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Yangpyeong(away) | 4-2 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Suwon Bluewings(home) | 2-1 | FA Cup |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Siheung Citizen(away) | 2-0 | K3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ulsan Citizen win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Busan Transportation win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Busan Transportation 2-0 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Ulsan Citizen 0-1 Busan Transportation | K3 League |
| May 18, 2025 | Busan Transportation 2-1 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Ulsan Citizen 3-1 Busan Transportation | K3 League |
| Jun 16, 2024 | Busan Transportation 3-4 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Ulsan Citizen 1-3 Busan Transportation | K3 League |
Last archived meeting: Busan Transportation vs Ulsan Citizen on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ulsan Citizen score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Busan Transportation score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan Citizen | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Busan Transportation | 2.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ulsan Citizen sit 10th in K3 League (22 points from 19 matches) and Busan Transportation sit 3rd (36 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Busan Transportation | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 18 | 36 |
| 4 | Busan Transportation | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 26 |
| 10 | Ulsan Citizen | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 21 | 22 |
| 11 | Ulsan Citizen | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation?
- The Footlab model makes Busan Transportation the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Ulsan Citizen.
- Where and when is Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation played?
- Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation is played on August 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ulsan Complex Stadium, in the K3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.