Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel: prediction and stats
Liga AlefNorth - 5Kick-off on September 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)HaShalom Stadium, Umm al-Fahm
The Footlab model makes Hapoel Ironi Karmiel the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (1,605) and Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (1,694).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Hapoel Ironi Karmiel have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | Maccabi K. Ata Bialik(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Hapoel Bnei Musmus(home) | 0-2 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Hapoel Beit Shean(home) | 2-3 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel(home) | 1-0 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Tzeirey Tamra(away) | 4-2 | Liga Alef |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba(home) | 1-2 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Tira(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel(home) | 1-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm(away) | 0-1 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Hapoel Bnei Musmus(home) | 2-3 | Liga Alef |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1-0 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel | Liga Alef |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1-0 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
Last archived meeting: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel on Feb 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Hapoel Ironi Karmiel score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 1.4 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Hapoel Ironi Karmiel | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm sit 16th in Liga Alef (11 points from 22 matches) and Hapoel Ironi Karmiel sit 5th (33 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 23 | 33 |
| 16 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 37 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel?
- The Footlab model makes Hapoel Ironi Karmiel the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm.
- Where and when is Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel played?
- Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel is played on September 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at HaShalom Stadium, in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 30, 2026Hapoel Nazareth IllitvsTzeirey Tamra
- Sep 30, 2026Ironi NeshervsBeitar Nahariya
- Sep 30, 2026Hapoel Bnei MusmusvsMaccabi K. Ata Bialik
- Sep 30, 2026Hapoel Ihud Bnei JattvsMaccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
- Sep 30, 2026Hapoel Tirat HaCarmelvsTzeirei Umm al-Fahm
- Sep 30, 2026Maccabi Neve Sha'ananvsTira
- Sep 30, 2026Hapoel Beit SheanvsIroni Baka El Garbiya
- Sep 30, 2026Hapoel Ironi ArrabavsHapoel Migdal HaEmek