Harrogate Town vs Bury: prediction and stats
FA Cup4th Round QualifyingKick-off on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)EnviroVent Stadium, Harrogate, North Yorkshire
The Footlab AI model makes Bury the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Harrogate Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bury wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,618 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Harrogate Town vs Bury?
Bury starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,947 vs 1,839).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Harrogate Town vs Bury
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Harrogate Town
4-3-3- 23B. Dolaghan
- 9S. McCoulsky
- 18J. Muldoon
- 3E. Bristow
- 14M. Williams
- 11W. McGowan
- 24L. Cass
- 4A. Baptiste
- 16S. Dreyer
- 26G. Horton
- 34L. Hutchinson
Bury
Not enough data to predict the Bury lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 06:51 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Harrogate Town have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Bury have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bury(away) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Woking(away) | 1-0 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 3-0 | National League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 1-0 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Eastleigh(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Harrogate Town(home) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alfreton Town(away) | 3-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bromsgrove Sporting(home) | 2-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(home) | 4-3 | FA Trophy |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Harrogate Town wins, 1 draw, 0 Bury wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bury 1-1 Harrogate Town | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Bury vs Harrogate Town on Oct 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Harrogate Town score 2.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bury score 2.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate Town | 2.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Bury | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Harrogate Town vs Bury?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Harrogate Town vs Bury?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bury the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Harrogate Town.
- Where and when is Harrogate Town vs Bury played?
- Harrogate Town vs Bury is played on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at EnviroVent Stadium, in the FA Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.