Heegan vs EL Merriekh Bentiu: prediction and stats
CAF Champions LeagueSemi-finalsKick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Garoonka Banadir Stadium, Mogadishu
The Footlab model makes Heegan the favourite at 56%, against 28% for a draw and 15% for EL Merriekh Bentiu. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heegan vs EL Merriekh Bentiu?
Heegan starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (1,631 vs 1,473).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heegan have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; EL Merriekh Bentiu have 0, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | Mogadishu City(home) | 2-2 | Somali Premier League |
| May 19, 2025 | Madbacadda(home) | 4-1 | Somali Premier League |
| May 14, 2025 | Jeenyo(away) | 2-2 | Somali Premier League |
| May 9, 2025 | Horseed(away) | 0-0 | Somali Premier League |
| May 4, 2025 | Dekedaha(home) | 2-1 | Somali Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2025 | Azam(away) | 0-2 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Jul 15, 2024 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 1-3 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 12, 2024 | APR(away) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 9, 2024 | SC Villa(away) | 0-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Heegan score 2.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; EL Merriekh Bentiu score 0.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heegan | 2.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
| EL Merriekh Bentiu | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1 | 1/5 | 1/5 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heegan vs EL Merriekh Bentiu?
- The Footlab model makes Heegan the favourite at 56%, against 28% for a draw and 15% for EL Merriekh Bentiu.
- Where and when is Heegan vs EL Merriekh Bentiu played?
- Heegan vs EL Merriekh Bentiu is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Garoonka Banadir Stadium, in the CAF Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.