Heerenveen vs Ajax: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Heerenveen. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ajax wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,834 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heerenveen vs Ajax?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (2,104 vs 1,979).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Heerenveen vs Ajax
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Heerenveen
4-2-3-1- 9D. Vente
- 20J. Trenskow
- 7M. Rivera
- 8N. Courtens
- 14L. Smans
- 16M. Linday
- 4S. Kersten
- 19V. Zagaritis
- 3M. Willemsen
- 45O. Braude
- 1B. Klaverboer
Ajax
4-3-3- 10O. Gloukh
- 38Marcos Leonardo
- 99T. Arokodare
- 8J. Brandt
- 24J. Mokio
- 4S. Amrabat
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 30A. Bouwman
- 15Y. Baas
- 1M. ter Stegen
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 02:09 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heerenveen have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Ajax have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 9, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 0-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 5-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 15, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Heerenveen win, 3 draws, 2 Ajax wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ajax 2-2 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| May 17, 2026 | Heerenveen 0-0 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Ajax 1-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Heerenveen 0-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Ajax 1-0 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Heerenveen 3-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Heerenveen score 2.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 2.3 | 1.6 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Ajax | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heerenveen sit 8th in Eredivisie (12 points from 9 matches) and Ajax sit 4th (18 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 18 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 12 |
A question about Heerenveen vs Ajax?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heerenveen vs Ajax?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Heerenveen.
- Where and when is Heerenveen vs Ajax played?
- Heerenveen vs Ajax is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Abe Lenstra Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.