Utrecht vs Excelsior: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
The Footlab AI model makes Utrecht the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 1-1. If Utrecht wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Utrecht vs Excelsior?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Utrecht (1,967) and Excelsior (1,909).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Utrecht vs Excelsior
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Utrecht
3-4-3- 20D. de Wit
- 10Y. Cathline
- 11Ángel Alarcón
- 92A. Zagré
- 23N. Vesterlund
- 34D. van den Berg
- 8J. van Overeem
- 2S. Horemans
- 3M. Didden
- 5N. Panagiotou
- 1V. Barkas
Excelsior
4-3-3- 19D. Garden
- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 09:59 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Utrecht have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Excelsior have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 0-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 30, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-6 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Utrecht wins, 2 draws, 1 Excelsior win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Excelsior 1-2 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Excelsior 5-0 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Utrecht 4-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Excelsior 1-1 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Utrecht 2-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Jan 25, 2023 | Utrecht 1-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Utrecht score 1.5 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior score 2.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Excelsior | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Utrecht sit 13th in Eredivisie (8 points from 8 matches) and Excelsior sit 9th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 25 | 8 |
A question about Utrecht vs Excelsior?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Utrecht vs Excelsior?
- The Footlab AI model makes Utrecht the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is Utrecht vs Excelsior played?
- Utrecht vs Excelsior is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Galgenwaard, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.