Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg
The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Willem II. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven is a heavy favourite: 2,219 Elo points against 1,820 — a 400-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Willem II have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; PSV Eindhoven have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OFI(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | KV Mechelen(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 0-4 | Super Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Willem II win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 PSV Eindhoven win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Willem II 0-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| May 1, 2022 | PSV Eindhoven 4-2 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Sep 25, 2021 | Willem II 2-1 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| May 9, 2021 | Willem II 0-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Nov 8, 2020 | PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Willem II | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II on Feb 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Willem II score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; PSV Eindhoven score 3.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Willem II sit 16th in Eredivisie (0 points from 2 matches) and PSV Eindhoven sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven?
- The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Willem II.
- Where and when is Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven played?
- Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Koning Willem II Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.