Helmond Sport vs Roda: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 30Kick-off on March 12, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond
The Footlab model makes Roda the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Helmond Sport. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Roda starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,718 vs 1,582).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Helmond Sport have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Roda have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Roda(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | De Graafschap(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | St. Truiden(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Gemert(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Alemannia Aachen(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Beerschot VA(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Helmond Sport win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Roda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Roda 2-1 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Roda 1-1 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Helmond Sport 1-3 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Roda 3-2 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 21, 2024 | Helmond Sport 2-1 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Helmond Sport 3-3 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Roda vs Helmond Sport on Aug 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Helmond Sport score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Roda score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond Sport | 0.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 3/15 |
| Roda | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Helmond Sport sit 16th in Eerste Divisie (2 points from 3 matches) and Roda sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Roda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Roda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Helmond Sport vs Roda?
- The Footlab model makes Roda the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Helmond Sport.
- Where and when is Helmond Sport vs Roda played?
- Helmond Sport vs Roda is played on March 12, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at GS Staalwerken Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.