Roda vs Jong Ajax: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 31Kick-off on March 19, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade
The Footlab model makes Roda the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Jong Ajax. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Roda starts as the favourite with a 189-point Elo edge (1,718 vs 1,529).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Roda have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Jong Ajax have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Alemannia Aachen(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Beerschot VA(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Emmen(home) | 4-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Roda win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Jong Ajax win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | Jong Ajax 2-2 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Roda 3-3 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 23, 2024 | Jong Ajax 3-1 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Roda 2-1 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 26, 2024 | Jong Ajax 1-1 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 27, 2023 | Roda 2-1 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Roda score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Jong Ajax score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Jong Ajax | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Roda sit 6th in Eerste Divisie (6 points from 3 matches) and Jong Ajax sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Roda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Roda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Roda vs Jong Ajax?
- The Footlab model makes Roda the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Jong Ajax.
- Where and when is Roda vs Jong Ajax played?
- Roda vs Jong Ajax is played on March 19, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.