Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 07:30 AM (UTC)Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Zhengzhou
The Footlab model makes Beijing Guoan the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Henan Jianye. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (1,735 vs 1,586).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Henan Jianye have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Beijing Guoan have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Shenyang Urban(away) | 4-4 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shanghai Shenhua(away) | 1-4 | Super League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Qingdao Youth Island(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dalian Zhixing(home) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Shandong Luneng(away) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Yunnan Yukun(home) | 3-3 | Super League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Shanghai Shenhua(away) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tianjin Teda(away) | 4-2 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sichuan Jiuniu(home) | 4-0 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hangzhou Greentown(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Henan Jianye win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Beijing Guoan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Beijing Guoan 1-2 Henan Jianye | Super League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Beijing Guoan 3-0 Henan Jianye | FA Cup |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Henan Jianye 2-0 Beijing Guoan | Super League |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Beijing Guoan 1-0 Henan Jianye | Super League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Beijing Guoan 1-1 Henan Jianye | Super League |
| Jun 15, 2024 | Henan Jianye 2-1 Beijing Guoan | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Henan Jianye score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Beijing Guoan score 2.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henan Jianye | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Beijing Guoan | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Henan Jianye sit 11th in Super League (15 points from 15 matches) and Beijing Guoan sit 10th (15 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 32 | 36 |
| 10 | Beijing Guoan | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 15 |
| 11 | Henan Jianye | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 15 |
| 13 | Henan Jianye | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 33 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
- The Footlab model makes Beijing Guoan the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Henan Jianye.
- Where and when is Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan played?
- Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan is played on October 24, 2026 at 07:30 AM (UTC) at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 24, 2026Tianjin TedavsSHANGHAI SIPG
- Oct 24, 2026Chengdu Better CityvsDalian Zhixing
- Oct 24, 2026Shenyang UrbanvsHangzhou Greentown
- Oct 24, 2026Sichuan JiuniuvsShanghai Shenhua
- Oct 24, 2026Wuhan Three TownsvsShandong Luneng
- Oct 24, 2026Qingdao Youth IslandvsYunnan Yukun
- Oct 24, 2026Chongqing Tongliang LongvsQingdao Jonoon