Homeboyz vs Mara Sugar: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Bukhungu Stadium, Kakamega
The Footlab AI model makes Homeboyz the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Mara Sugar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Homeboyz wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,789 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Homeboyz vs Mara Sugar?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Homeboyz (1,546) and Mara Sugar (1,486).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Homeboyz vs Mara Sugar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Homeboyz
Not enough data to predict the Homeboyz lineup.
Mara Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Mara Sugar lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 03:15 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Homeboyz have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Mara Sugar have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Mombasa Elite(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Police(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | 3K(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mathare United(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Shabana(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Homeboyz win, 2 draws, 1 Mara Sugar win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Homeboyz 3-3 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Mara Sugar 0-0 Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Homeboyz 2-0 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Mara Sugar 3-0 Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Homeboyz vs Mara Sugar on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Homeboyz score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mara Sugar score 0.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homeboyz | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Mara Sugar | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Homeboyz sit 4th in FKF Premier League (3 points from 1 match) and Mara Sugar sit 6th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Homeboyz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
A question about Homeboyz vs Mara Sugar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Homeboyz vs Mara Sugar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Homeboyz the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Mara Sugar.
- Where and when is Homeboyz vs Mara Sugar played?
- Homeboyz vs Mara Sugar is played on March 20, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Bukhungu Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.