Shabana vs Mathare United: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Raila Odinga Homa Bay Stadium, Homa Bay
The Footlab model makes Shabana the favourite at 39%, against 33% for a draw and 28% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shabana vs Mathare United?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Shabana (1,518) and Mathare United (1,452).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shabana have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Mathare United have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | KCB(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Sofapaka(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | Bidco United(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 2, 2026 | Sofapaka(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Shabana win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Mathare United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Mathare United 0-1 Shabana | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Shabana 0-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Shabana 0-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Mathare United 1-0 Shabana | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Mathare United vs Shabana on Feb 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shabana score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mathare United score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shabana | 0.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Mathare United | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shabana sit 5th in FKF Premier League (52 points from 34 matches) and Mathare United sit 14th (41 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shabana | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 34 | 52 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 35 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shabana vs Mathare United?
- The Footlab model makes Shabana the favourite at 39%, against 33% for a draw and 28% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is Shabana vs Mathare United played?
- Shabana vs Mathare United is played on March 20, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Raila Odinga Homa Bay Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.