Ibiza vs Real Murcia: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic, Ibiza
The Footlab model makes Ibiza the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Real Murcia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ibiza vs Real Murcia?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Ibiza (1,926) and Real Murcia (1,931).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ibiza have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Real Murcia have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Europa Fc(away) | 2-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 16, 2026 | FC Cartagena(home) | 3-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Hércules(away) | 1-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Albacete(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cieza(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 3-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ibiza win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Real Murcia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Ibiza 2-0 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Real Murcia 0-2 Ibiza | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Real Murcia 0-2 Ibiza | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Ibiza 1-2 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jul 30, 2024 | Real Murcia 2-1 Ibiza | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Real Murcia 0-0 Ibiza | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Ibiza score 1.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Real Murcia score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibiza | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Real Murcia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ibiza sit 12th in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (50 points from 38 matches) and Real Murcia sit 10th (52 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Real Murcia | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 43 | 40 | 52 |
| 12 | Ibiza | 38 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 44 | 38 | 50 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ibiza vs Real Murcia?
- The Footlab model makes Ibiza the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Real Murcia.
- Where and when is Ibiza vs Real Murcia played?
- Ibiza vs Real Murcia is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.