Indonesia vs Qatar: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 2Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Manahan, Surakarta
The Footlab AI model makes Indonesia the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Qatar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Indonesia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Indonesia vs Qatar?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Indonesia (1,543) and Qatar (1,588).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Indonesia vs Qatar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Indonesia
5-4-1- 11R. Oratmangoen
- 14J. Pelupessy
- 8L. Vickery
- 19T. Haye
- 18I. Jenner
- 2K. Diks
- 20E. Baggott
- 17C. Verdonk
- 23Justin Quincy Hubner
- 5R. Ridho
- 1E. Audero
Qatar
4-3-3- 19Almoez Ali
- 11Akram Afif
- 9Y. Abdurisag
- 20Ahmed Fathi
- 12Karim Boudiaf
- 23Assim Madibo
- 2Pedro Miguel
- 13Ayoub Al Oui
- 14Homam Ahmed
- 16Boualem Khoukhi
- 1Mahmud Abunada
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:52 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Indonesia have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Qatar have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Thailand(home) | 2-2 | FIFA Asean Cup |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Bangladesh(home) | 9-2 | FIFA Asean Cup |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Malaysia(away) | 0-0 | FIFA Asean Cup |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Singapore(home) | 2-0 | FIFA Asean Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Singapore(away) | 1-1 | ASEAN Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(away) | 0-0 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Sep 30, 2026 | United Arab Emirates(away) | 1-1 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Yemen(away) | 1-0 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Bahrain(home) | 2-0 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(away) | 1-3 | World Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Indonesia score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Qatar score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia | 2.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Qatar | 0.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Indonesia vs Qatar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Indonesia vs Qatar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Indonesia the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Qatar.
- Where and when is Indonesia vs Qatar played?
- Indonesia vs Qatar is played on January 16, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Manahan, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.