Indonesia vs Qatar: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 2Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Manahan, Surakarta
The Footlab model makes Indonesia the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Qatar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Indonesia vs Qatar?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Indonesia (1,522) and Qatar (1,561).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Indonesia have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Qatar have 1, 5 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Singapore(away) | 1-1 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Vietnam(home) | 0-3 | ASEAN Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Timor-Leste(away) | 3-0 | ASEAN Championship |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Cambodia(home) | 5-1 | ASEAN Championship |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Mozambique(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(away) | 1-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Canada(away) | 0-6 | World Cup |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Switzerland(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | El Salvador(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| May 28, 2026 | Rep. Of Ireland(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Indonesia score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Qatar score 0.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia | 1.8 | 1.1 | 8 | 3/15 | 8/15 |
| Qatar | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Indonesia vs Qatar?
- The Footlab model makes Indonesia the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Qatar.
- Where and when is Indonesia vs Qatar played?
- Indonesia vs Qatar is played on January 16, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Manahan, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.