Iraq vs Australia: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 2Kick-off on January 14, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Basra International Stadium, Basra
The Footlab AI model makes Australia the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Iraq. The most likely score is 1-1. If Australia wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Iraq vs Australia?
Australia starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,754 vs 1,635).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Iraq vs Australia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Iraq
4-2-3-1- 10H. Abdulkareem
- 16Amir Al Ammari
- 11A. Qasem
- 13S. Rasheed
- 6Z. Ismaeel
- 20Karar Nabeel
- 23Merchas Doski
- 25J. Al-Imam
- 3Mustafa Saadoun
- 4Zayed Tahseen
- 1Ahmed Basil
Australia
5-4-1- 26T. Yengi
- 17N. Irankunda
- 8C. Metcalfe
- 22J. Irvine
- 24Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler
- 3A. Circati
- 19H. Souttar
- 25L. Herrington
- 16A. Behich
- 4J. Italiano
- 18P. Beach
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Iraq have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Australia have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(away) | 0-2 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Kuwait(away) | 3-2 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oman(home) | 1-1 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 0-5 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | France(away) | 0-3 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Brazil(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Brazil(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Egypt(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Paraguay(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 19, 2026 | USA(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Iraq wins, 1 draw, 2 Australia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2017 | Iraq 1-1 Australia | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Sep 1, 2016 | Australia 2-0 Iraq | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Jan 22, 2011 | Australia 1-0 Iraq | Asian Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Iraq score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Australia score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iraq | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Australia | 1.2 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Iraq vs Australia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Iraq vs Australia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Australia the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Iraq.
- Where and when is Iraq vs Australia played?
- Iraq vs Australia is played on January 14, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Basra International Stadium, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.