Iraq vs Australia: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 2Kick-off on January 14, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Basra International Stadium, al-Baṣra (Basra)
The Footlab model makes Australia the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Iraq. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Iraq vs Australia?
Australia starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,764 vs 1,642).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Iraq have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Australia have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 0-5 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | France(away) | 0-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Norway(home) | 1-4 | World Cup |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Venezuela(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Spain(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Paraguay(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 19, 2026 | USA(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Türkiye(home) | 2-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Switzerland(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Iraq win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Australia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2017 | Iraq 1-1 Australia | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Sep 1, 2016 | Australia 2-0 Iraq | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Jan 22, 2011 | Australia 1-0 Iraq | Asian Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Iraq score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Australia score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iraq | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Australia | 1.2 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Iraq vs Australia?
- The Footlab model makes Australia the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Iraq.
- Where and when is Iraq vs Australia played?
- Iraq vs Australia is played on January 14, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Basra International Stadium, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.