Ipswich vs Leeds: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Portman Road, Ipswich, Suffolk
The Footlab model makes Leeds the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Ipswich. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ipswich vs Leeds?
Leeds starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (2,169 vs 2,019).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ipswich have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Leeds have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sunderland(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Union Berlin(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Augsburg(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 4-2 | Premier League - Summer Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ipswich win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Leeds win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2023 | Leeds 4-0 Ipswich | Championship |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Ipswich 3-4 Leeds | Championship |
| May 5, 2019 | Ipswich 3-2 Leeds | Championship |
| Oct 24, 2018 | Leeds 2-0 Ipswich | Championship |
| Jan 13, 2018 | Ipswich 1-0 Leeds | Championship |
| Sep 23, 2017 | Leeds 3-2 Ipswich | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Ipswich score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ipswich sit 8th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Leeds sit 9th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ipswich vs Leeds?
- The Footlab model makes Leeds the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Ipswich.
- Where and when is Ipswich vs Leeds played?
- Ipswich vs Leeds is played on May 1, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Portman Road, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.