Sunderland vs Newcastle: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadium of Light, Sunderland
The Footlab AI model makes Sunderland the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sunderland wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,853 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sunderland vs Newcastle?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Sunderland (2,112) and Newcastle (2,170).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sunderland vs Newcastle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sunderland
4-2-3-1- 57Timur Tuterov
- 27N. Sadiki
- 34G. Xhaka
- 28E. Le Fée
- 32T. Hume
- 11C. Rigg
- 20N. Mukiele
- 4K. Danso
- 17Reinildo
- 15O. Alderete
- 22R. Roefs
Newcastle
4-2-3-1- 9Y. Wissa
- 11H. Barnes
- 28J. Willock
- 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
- 6Nico González
- 23J. Murphy
- 4S. Botman
- 3L. Hall
- 12M. Thiaw
- 67L. Miley
- 21L. Horníček
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 01:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sunderland have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; Newcastle have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 3-5 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sunderland wins, 1 draw, 1 Newcastle win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Newcastle 1-2 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Jan 6, 2024 | Sunderland 0-3 Newcastle | FA Cup |
| Mar 20, 2016 | Newcastle 1-1 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2015 | Sunderland 3-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Apr 5, 2015 | Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle vs Sunderland on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sunderland score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 1.1 | 1.4 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sunderland sit 19th in Premier League (4 points from 7 matches) and Newcastle sit 11th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 4 |
A question about Sunderland vs Newcastle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sunderland vs Newcastle?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sunderland the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Sunderland vs Newcastle played?
- Sunderland vs Newcastle is played on May 1, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium of Light, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.