Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Selhurst Park, London
The Footlab model makes Crystal Palace the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (2,202 vs 2,101).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Crystal Palace have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Aston Villa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Everton(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SC Freiburg(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Al Ula(home) | 3-1 | Como Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Como Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Crystal Palace win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Aston Villa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | Crystal Palace 0-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Aston Villa 0-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Crystal Palace 3-0 Aston Villa | FA Cup |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Crystal Palace 4-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Aston Villa 2-2 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Aston Villa 1-2 Crystal Palace | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa on Jan 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Crystal Palace score 1.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2 | 7/15 | 12/15 |
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Crystal Palace sit 17th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Aston Villa sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab model makes Crystal Palace the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa played?
- Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa is played on May 1, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Selhurst Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.