Bahrain vs North Korea: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 1Kick-off on January 8, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī (Bahrain National Stadium), Riffa
The Footlab model makes Bahrain the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for North Korea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bahrain vs North Korea?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Bahrain (1,536) and North Korea (1,496).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bahrain have 2 wins, 1 draws and 12 defeats; North Korea have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Georgia(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Sudan(home) | 3-1 | Arab Cup |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Algeria(home) | 1-5 | Arab Cup |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Iraq(away) | 1-2 | Arab Cup |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Djibouti(home) | 1-0 | Arab Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2025 | Iran(away) | 0-3 | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Jun 5, 2025 | Kyrgyzstan(home) | 2-2 | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Mar 25, 2025 | United Arab Emirates(home) | 1-2 | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Mar 20, 2025 | Qatar(away) | 1-5 | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Jordan(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Bahrain win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 North Korea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2018 | Bahrain 4-0 North Korea | Friendlies |
| Nov 17, 2015 | North Korea 2-0 Bahrain | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Sep 3, 2015 | Bahrain 0-1 North Korea | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
Last archived meeting: Bahrain vs North Korea on Dec 29, 2018
How many goals should we expect?
Bahrain score 0.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; North Korea score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahrain | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| North Korea | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bahrain vs North Korea?
- The Footlab model makes Bahrain the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for North Korea.
- Where and when is Bahrain vs North Korea played?
- Bahrain vs North Korea is played on January 8, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī (Bahrain National Stadium), in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.