Ironi Nesher vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm: prediction and stats
Liga AlefNorth - 14Kick-off on December 15, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Nesher Municipal Stadium, Nesher
The Footlab model makes Hapoel Umm al-Fahm the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Ironi Nesher. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ironi Nesher vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Ironi Nesher (1,612) and Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (1,605).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ironi Nesher have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Hapoel Umm al-Fahm have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya(home) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek(away) | 0-3 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba(home) | 3-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Tira(away) | 2-0 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel(home) | 1-1 | Liga Alef |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | Maccabi K. Ata Bialik(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Hapoel Bnei Musmus(home) | 0-2 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Hapoel Beit Shean(home) | 2-3 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel(home) | 1-0 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Tzeirey Tamra(away) | 4-2 | Liga Alef |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Ironi Nesher win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1-2 Ironi Nesher | Liga Alef |
| Sep 11, 2025 | Ironi Nesher 2-1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Jan 19, 2019 | Ironi Nesher 1-3 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Sep 16, 2018 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1-0 Ironi Nesher | Liga Alef |
Last archived meeting: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Nesher on Jan 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ironi Nesher score 1.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Hapoel Umm al-Fahm score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ironi Nesher | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 1.4 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ironi Nesher sit 11th in Liga Alef (29 points from 22 matches) and Hapoel Umm al-Fahm sit 16th (11 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ironi Nesher | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 37 | 29 |
| 16 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 37 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ironi Nesher vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm?
- The Footlab model makes Hapoel Umm al-Fahm the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Ironi Nesher.
- Where and when is Ironi Nesher vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm played?
- Ironi Nesher vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm is played on December 15, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Nesher Municipal Stadium, in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 15, 2026Hapoel Bnei MusmusvsHapoel Beit Shean
- Dec 15, 2026Hapoel Ihud Bnei JattvsHapoel Nazareth Illit
- Dec 15, 2026Hapoel Migdal HaEmekvsBeitar Nahariya
- Dec 15, 2026Maccabi Neve Sha'ananvsHapoel Tirat HaCarmel
- Dec 15, 2026Maccabi Nujeidat AhmedvsIroni Baka El Garbiya
- Dec 15, 2026TiravsHapoel Ironi Karmiel
- Dec 15, 2026Maccabi K. Ata BialikvsTzeirei Umm al-Fahm
- Dec 15, 2026Hapoel Ironi ArrabavsTzeirey Tamra