Iskra Smolensk vs Murom: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 2Group 2 - 27Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Murom the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Iskra Smolensk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Iskra Smolensk vs Murom?
Murom starts as the favourite with a 139-point Elo edge (1,673 vs 1,535).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Iskra Smolensk have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Murom have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Yenisey II(away) | 0-4 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(home) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kaluga(away) | 0-5 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny(away) | 0-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dinamo St. Petersburg(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Baltika II(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Yenisey II(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Metallurg Lipetsk(home) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(away) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny(home) | 3-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Iskra Smolensk win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Murom win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Murom 6-0 Iskra Smolensk | Second League - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Murom vs Iskra Smolensk on Jun 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Iskra Smolensk score 0.8 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Murom score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iskra Smolensk | 0.8 | 2.4 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Murom | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Iskra Smolensk sit 13th in Second League - Group 2 (10 points from 12 matches) and Murom sit 4th (22 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Murom | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 16 | 38 |
| 4 | Murom | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 22 |
| 13 | Iskra Smolensk | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 10 |
| 15 | Iskra Smolensk | 19 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 41 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Iskra Smolensk vs Murom?
- The Footlab model makes Murom the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Iskra Smolensk.
- Where and when is Iskra Smolensk vs Murom played?
- Iskra Smolensk vs Murom is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Second League - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.