Jagiellonia II vs Mławianka Mława: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok, Białystok
The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia II the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Mławianka Mława. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jagiellonia II vs Mławianka Mława?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Jagiellonia II (1,775) and Mławianka Mława (1,716).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jagiellonia II have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Mławianka Mława have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 0-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wigry Suwałki(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Łomża(away) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki(home) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 1-5 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Jagiellonia II win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Mławianka Mława win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Mławianka Mława 0-1 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Jagiellonia II 3-2 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
| May 2, 2025 | Mławianka Mława 2-3 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Jagiellonia II 2-2 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Mławianka Mława 0-1 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Jagiellonia II 3-0 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Mławianka Mława vs Jagiellonia II on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Jagiellonia II score 1.6 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mławianka Mława score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia II | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Mławianka Mława | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jagiellonia II sit 10th in III Liga - Group 1 (8 points from 5 matches) and Mławianka Mława sit 14th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jagiellonia II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| 14 | Mławianka Mława | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jagiellonia II vs Mławianka Mława?
- The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia II the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Mławianka Mława.
- Where and when is Jagiellonia II vs Mławianka Mława played?
- Jagiellonia II vs Mławianka Mława is played on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026Olimpia ElblągvsPelikan Łowicz
- Sep 12, 2026Olimpia ZambrówvsWigry Suwałki
- Sep 12, 2026SwitvsWeszlo
- Sep 12, 2026Wisła Płock IIvsŁKS Łódź II
- Sep 12, 2026Polonia Lidzbark Warm.vsWarta Sieradz
- Sep 12, 2026TroszynvsŁomża
- Sep 12, 2026Widzew IIvsMazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
- Sep 12, 2026Ząbkovia ZąbkivsLechia T. Mazowiecki